One year ago I wrote an article for Ferminews predicting the events of 2004 at Fermilab. I thought it would be interesting to go through those predictions a year later and see how they hold up.

The Original Article	My Evaluation Today
Below are my predictions. Some are pretty sure bets; some are more speculative, and at least one is a long shot. I will let you decide which prediction falls into which category.
The CDF and DZero collaborations will make public many important new results throughout the year, intensifying the competition to be the Result of the Week in Fermilab Today. In August, Run II results will make news at the International Conference on High Energy Physics in Beijing.	These predictions held up well, as you can see at the Fermilab Result of the Week archive. CDF and D-Zero collaborations submitted 133 conference papers to the 32nd International Conference on High Energy Physics in Beijing. The top quark mass received a lot of attention, as it will continue to do.
The Tevatron collider will deliver as many collisions to the experiments as it has in all its previous history, so that the total data sample available for physics will be twice what it is today. The recycler will perform as planned and the beam line for electron cooling of antiprotons will be installed.	Collider performance was excellent and met all expectations, and the electron cooling apparatus was installed. I was wrong on the Recycler, however, in that it did better than planned. I also failed to predict that we would achieve a luminosity of 1032cm-2s-1.
It will be a big year for neutrinos at Fermilab. In December we will be starting up the beam line that will send neutrinos to Minnesota. The MINOS collaboration will be producing physics results using atmospheric neutrinos in their far detector, as they tune up to receive Fermilab neutrinos. The MiniBooNE collaboration will have enough events on tape to answer the question of whether there is a fourth light neutrino. Nobody will know the answer yet, however. The Physics Advisory Committee will make recommendations that shape the future of neutrino physics at Fermilab.	We sent the first protons successfully to the NuMI beam line; the first neutrinos will be produced in January. The MINOS far detector is ready to go and is being used to study atmospheric neutrinos, although the results are not yet published. MiniBooNE probably does have enough data on tape to answer the big question. We will know that answer in the fall of 2005 when they open the box on their blind analysis. The PAC recommended that we support the NOvA collaboration to develop their proposal and that we extend MiniBooNE into FY 2006.
The BTeV project will be blessed with exactly what they have been asking for--a whole slew of DOE and Fermilab reviews. By the end of the year they will be near the official launch of the construction project.	Were they ever blessed with reviews! BTeV capped a very active year of reviews with a very successful DOE review. The committee recommended CD-2 and CD-3a approval, which would mean start of the project. We believe that approval will follow early in 2005.
The worldwide search to detect dark matter directly will take a big step forward with the first physics results from operation of the Cryogenic Dark Matter Search experiment in the Soudan mine. Similarly, the discussion of the highest energy cosmic rays will revolve around early results with the partially-built Auger observatory.	The first CDMS-II results published in Physical Review Letters stand clearly as the best in the world now, although dark matter has not yet shown up. The Auger collaboration has striking events to show, but they will not be presenting their major results until next summer.
The Fermilab long-range planning committee will produce its report early in the year. It will be used to guide the direction of R&D toward future projects at Fermilab.	The impact of this report has been stronger than my words implied. We are redirecting the R&D effort toward linear collider and proton driver activity. We need to increase these efforts again next year. In additional actions in response to the long-range plan, we also started the LHC Physics Center and the Particle Astrophysics Center.
The Sloan Digital Sky Survey will continue to produce impressive results and striking pictures.	163 papers based on SDSS data were published in refereed journals. These include a definitive measurement of the clustering of matter in the universe and new information about the halo of our galaxy.
The International Technology Recommendation Panel will report its recommendation on the chosen technology for the linear collider, and that recommendation will be accepted. Governments will talk more seriously about how to organize an international linear collider project.	The ITRP recommendation was immediately endorsed around the world of particle physics. The International Linear Collider collaboration had its first meeting in October, at the Japanese laboratory KEK. Funding agencies from all involved countries have endorsed the result and are forming a joint working group to track the ILC research program.
New results from the Tevatron experiments and from the B-factories will show that we do not yet understand everything about the particles made from heavy quarks. Theorists from Fermilab and around the world will engage in a lively debate about their competing explanations of the data.	The summary talks on B physics at the ICHEP meeting in Beijing were filled with puzzles not yet resolved. Ten of the Results of the Week concerned mesons with bottom and charm quarks. The Bcmeson, combining a bottom quark and a charm antiquark was the subject of two such stories in one week.
There will be even fewer workplace accidents at Fermilab than the record-best year we are just finishing, due to the efforts of everyone who works at the laboratory.	This is indeed what occurred, thanks to all of the people who work here. We have had eight accidents leading to lost workdays in the last year, the lowest ever.
Technicians, surveyors, physicists, engineers, and other specialists will work together in the tunnels to renew and upgrade the accelerator complex during the annual shutdown. This work will make it possible to deliver more luminosity, increase proton intensity, start up NuMI, and operate the accelerators more reliably.	The shutdown started on the day scheduled ten months earlier. The first collisions after the shutdown were achieved on exactly the scheduled day. The first studies of the NuMI beam line went very well. We will see over the next nine months how the luminosity and intensity stack up to last year, but I am very optimistic.
People from all over the laboratory will rise to the challenge of providing the administrative and technical support needed to do the great science discussed above.	The Operations review held here in March gave Fermilab's support teams very high marks.
One of the experiments mentioned above will produce a surprising new physics result that will become Fermilab's Result of the Year.	We have had many important results, some surprising. We are setting up an elite committee to choose the year's best.
The Fermilab budget for fiscal year 2005 will be 10 percent greater than this year.	Well, yes, sadly, this was the long shot. Our FY 2005 budget is only 1% greater. But we will again make the most of the budget we have.
	I did not predict the KTeV collaboration's new measurement of the CKM matrix element Vus that would change the world average significantly. Nor did I foresee the breakthrough that occurred in predicting hadron properties using lattice QCD techniques.
For my first try at this prediction business, not so bad. And several of them were not so obvious a year ago. The question is whether to stop while I am ahead or to try it again for the new year.