Preparation for P5 Meetings
On Physics with a high intensity proton source
Lunch Time Neutrino Discussions
  • Meeting Information
    • Time: everyday between 12:00 and 1:00 pm
    • Location: Fermilab Snake Pit (WH2E)
    • Video: Ad Hoc IP number 886682
    • Audio: dial 1-510-883-7860, then enter 886682 followed by # (you may need to enter another #).
  • What "NOvA" Can Do
    • 2008-02-18 (Mon)
      • 12:00 - 12:30 pm - a graphical representation of combining
        νμ → νe, anti νμ → anti νe, and the reactor experiments: Bob Cahn (15') - (ppt, pdf)
      • 12:30 - 12:40 pm - NOvA document for P5 (Steve Parke)
      • 12:40 - 01:00 pm - Others items
        • HEPAP meeting (Pier, Y2K, Gary, ....)
        • Neutrinos in Plain English (including why on-, off-axis experiments)
        • DUSEL timeline
    • Summary Document by Steve Parke et al (2008-02-16)
      This document captures lunch discussions between Feb. 2 and Feb. 12
      • 2008-02-05 (Tue)
      • 2008-02-06 (Wed) - NOvA / NOvA + 5 kton LAr theta-13 sensitivities (Rameika)
      • 2008-02-07 (Thu) - NOvA Physics (Feldman)
      • 2008-02-08 (Fri)
        • New variables (NOvA's sensitivity) to consider
          • P(nu_mu->nu_e) vs. exposure time for neutrinos and antineutrions.
          • sign(delta m^2) * sin(delta) - CP violation depends on this value.
          • The worst case scenario for NOvA - 0.03 < sin^2(2theta13) < 0.04.
            In this case the reactor expts can probably nail down theta13 pretty believably, and NOvA has no chance to do the mass hierarchy. So the only added value of NOvA is presumably some general guidance about CP violation, as per Gary's Fig 3.7 on page 9. Could we redo those plots for sin^2(2theta13) = 0.04, instead of 0.06? And the same thing with delta replaced by sign(delta m^2) * sin(delta) on the vertical axis?
      • 2008-02-11 (Mon): NOvA Sensitivites (new plots) - by Gary, by Mark M.
      • 2008-02-12 (Tue): NOvA Physics (by Steve Parke)
  • Neutrino Programs "Beyond NOvA"
    • 2008-02-13 (Wed):
    • 2008-02-14 (Thu):
    • 2008-02-15 (Fri):
    • 2008-02-18 (Mon):
  • P5 meeting at SLAC
    • P5 Agenda for DUSEL and Neutrino Programs
    • Practice Talks on Tuesday, Feb. 19 between 10 am and 1 pm
      Snake Pit (Video IP number 886682)
      • Gary Feldman (20') - NOvA
      • Gina Rameika (20') - Fermilab Future Neutrino Program
      • Heidi Shellman (15') - Other Fixed Target Experiments
      • Bonnie Fleming (20') - Liquid Argon Detectors
      • Steve Geer (20') - Advanced Neutrino Sources
      We likely have talks by Kevin Lesko (DUSEL facility), Peter Meyer (Overview), Milind Diwan (WC at DUSEL) before this practice talk (I will put them on web). Some will attend by phone/video.

sin213 Range sin213 Situation from
Double CHOOZ + Daya Bay + T2K
(*see assumptions below)
What NOvA can do
sin213 > 0.1 Measured by ~2010. Determine Mass Hierarchy
(MINOS will also reach this sin213.)
0.06 < sin213 < 0.1 Measured by ~2012. Determine Mass Hierarchy
in 1/3 - 1/2 of CP phase
0.03 < sin213 < 0.06 Measured by ~2013.
0.02 < sin213 < 0.03 ~3σ evidence by ~2013.
0.01 < sin213 < 0.02 ~2σ hint by ~2013.
sin213 < 0.01 90% CL limit by ~2013.
Assumptions made:
Results come out 0.5 - 1 year after data taking.
~3% (~1%) systematic uncertainties require ~1 (a few) year.

  • To be considered:
    • Maybe we need to plot a band of possibilities for each experiment, not just a line?
  • To be clarified:
    1. Double CHOOZ
      • What reactor uptime is assumed?
      • 90% CL means exactly how many sigma? What is the reference for this?
      • Does this result have the new position for the Near Detector in it?
      • What is the latest schedule? What is the reference for this schedule?
    2. Daya Bay
      • What reactor uptime is assumed?
      • 90% CL means exactly how many sigma? What is the reference for this?
      • What is the schedule and what is our reference for the schedule?
      • Do we believe the schedule? Does it agree with their CD-2 review?
    3. T2K
      • Where do we get their schedule?
      • What beam intensity profile do they use?
    4. NOvA
      • What is the estimated schedule with a reworked funding profile?
      • But, this schedule and the NOvA mass are influenced a lot by DOE's desire that the project have zero associated risk relative to CD-4, so what might a more optimistic schedule or mass look like?
      • What event reconstruction efficiencies are being used for signals and backgrounds?
  • Questions to be answered:
    • NOvA / 5 kton LAr Detector
      • Is it a necessary step or a detour on the road to the ultimate goal? It appears that the former is true, but we need to convince the committee of that, both on scientific and practical grounds.
      • e.g. Skip NOvA, build a beamline to DUSEL, and send the 700 kW beam to a 5 kT LAr detector there. How much would this cost? On what schedule could it be done? And what kind of physics could it do?
    • 5 kton LAr Detector:
      • Discussion and validation of projected sensitivity
      • What would you learn about neutrino physics and detector technology by building the 5-kT module as soon as feasible and installing it either with NOvA or (for the higher flux) on-axis at Soudan (even on the surface)?
      • Would doing be preferable to waiting for a new beam to DUSEL?